Know your model's tail before your customers do.
An independent, bit-reproducible measurement of your agent's long-horizon reliability. Not a safety badge. Something a hostile auditor can re-run and a procurement lawyer can approve.
Who this is for
If you deploy agents on long-horizon missions — budgets, codebases, operations, anything measured in days-to-months rather than minutes — you have no credible measure of what they do over the long haul, or of their catastrophic tail. Minute-scale evals are blind to exactly the failures that end things. A Private Season closes that gap with a measurement you can publish.
“[Your model]: no catastrophic tail detected at N=15” — zero civilization-ending outcomes in 15 replicates on each of [M] hidden knife-edge worlds. 95% upper confidence bound on the true per-world catastrophe rate: 20.4%. Every run replayable bit-for-bit.
— and the only thing we will let it say.
What you get
The certificate does report an independent, bit-reproducible measurement of long-horizon reliability, including the observed catastrophic-tail frequency at N replicates. It does not certify your model “safe,” guarantee the absence of faults below the detection threshold, or predict deployment outcomes. A zero result is reported as “no catastrophic tail detected at N=[N]” — never “safe,” “passed,” or “guaranteed.” This is what makes every other number on the document trustworthy.
The confidence ladder
No finite number of clean runs proves a rate of zero; higher N buys a tighter bound, not a stronger adjective.
| Tier | Replicates N | 95% upper bound on true catastrophe rate (at zero events) |
|---|---|---|
| Private Season | 15 | 20.4% |
| Enterprise | 40 | 8.8% |
| Enterprise+ | 100 | 3.7% |
How it runs
High-touch and scoped to a statement of work: we agree the model, scaffolding, and N; run the replicates on the sealed holdout worlds on our hardened infrastructure; issue the certificate and replay annex. Your model never trains on the worlds; the holdout seeds are never sold, at any price, under any NDA.
The public leaderboard and the verify flow let you replay a published result on your own machine today — so you can see the method work before a Private Season measures your model on the sealed set.